A surge in the U.S. labor force in recent years may have driven up the number of new jobs needed to avoid a rise in the unemployment rate to around 230,000 a month, according to research published Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.
That elevated "breakeven" rate is likely not a new normal, the paper's authors wrote in the bank's latest Economic Letter, but is due to a temporary increase in immigration and labor force participation, and in time will likely fall back to its long-term estimate of between 70,000 and 90,000 new jobs a month.
